coffee futures prices today - 2015-2016 crop Arabica Coffee production Forecast : The well-respected U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have announced that they have increased their forecast for Colombian production of mostly fine washed arabica coffees for the present October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year, to a total of 13.4 million bags. Within the report there is mention of the prevailing El Nino phenomenon within he Pacific and the resulting drier weather, but while the report does conceded that it might have some negative impact upon the prospects for the middle year Mitaca crop in 2016, it has indicated that this would not be serious and has been considered within this latest forecast.
Following the Colombian report the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have also released their latest report on the previous year’s results and the prospects for the Indonesian coffee crop over the coming October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year. In this respect they note that despite the severity of the prevailing El Nino phenomenon and the dry weather that it brings with it that it has so far not had much impact upon the rising coffee production levels that came with the good weather earlier in the year. The report does however agree with many other private trade and industry reports, in that it is likely to impact negatively upon coffee production during the coming year and with the north Sumatra arabica coffee production to be perhaps more negatively affected than the rest of the countries crop.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have also updated their report for Brazil and have revised their assessment of the just completed Brazil crop, which they now report to have been 49.4 million bags. But added to this they have estimated carry over coffee stocks into supply for this new October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year of close to 5.2 million bags. Therefore a coffee supply that be more than sufficient to satisfy overall domestic market and consumer market demand, through to the next 2016 new crop.
But it is a report that clearly agrees with most other reports in that by the time of the next Brazil crop, that the Brazil stocks shall be much depleted and that the country does require a good new surplus crop of in excess of 56 million bags, if it is to start rebuilding coffee stocks for the future. Therefore one might not see the report to be bearish for the market, as it rather indicates how important it is that Brazil is in receipt of good rains for the coffee districts over the next five months, it there is not to be a longer term supply problem.
In this respect there are reports of scattered rainfall from most of the main Brazil coffee districts and with not concerns being voiced over the prospects for rains, during the coming month. Therefore it remains business as usual within Brazil for the present, albeit that over the past couple of week’s internal market selling activity has slowed in reaction to the softening of the international reference prices
Following the Colombian report the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have also released their latest report on the previous year’s results and the prospects for the Indonesian coffee crop over the coming October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year. In this respect they note that despite the severity of the prevailing El Nino phenomenon and the dry weather that it brings with it that it has so far not had much impact upon the rising coffee production levels that came with the good weather earlier in the year. The report does however agree with many other private trade and industry reports, in that it is likely to impact negatively upon coffee production during the coming year and with the north Sumatra arabica coffee production to be perhaps more negatively affected than the rest of the countries crop.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have also updated their report for Brazil and have revised their assessment of the just completed Brazil crop, which they now report to have been 49.4 million bags. But added to this they have estimated carry over coffee stocks into supply for this new October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year of close to 5.2 million bags. Therefore a coffee supply that be more than sufficient to satisfy overall domestic market and consumer market demand, through to the next 2016 new crop.
But it is a report that clearly agrees with most other reports in that by the time of the next Brazil crop, that the Brazil stocks shall be much depleted and that the country does require a good new surplus crop of in excess of 56 million bags, if it is to start rebuilding coffee stocks for the future. Therefore one might not see the report to be bearish for the market, as it rather indicates how important it is that Brazil is in receipt of good rains for the coffee districts over the next five months, it there is not to be a longer term supply problem.
In this respect there are reports of scattered rainfall from most of the main Brazil coffee districts and with not concerns being voiced over the prospects for rains, during the coming month. Therefore it remains business as usual within Brazil for the present, albeit that over the past couple of week’s internal market selling activity has slowed in reaction to the softening of the international reference prices
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