Coffee market fundamental outlook November 10 2015 : The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 25.92% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 3rd. November; to register a net short sold position of 17,133 Lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 0.25%, to register a net long position of 26,294 Lots on the day.
Over the same week the Non Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within the market by 23.42%, to register a net short position of 23,886 Lots. This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 6,771,575 bags has most likely been marginally increased, following the period of mixed but overall more negative trade which has since followed and likewise, that of the short sold position of the Managed Money Funds.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 23.67% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 3rd. November; to register a net short sold position of 9,015 Lots on the day. This net long that is the equivalent of 1,502,500 bags has most likely been little changed, over the period of mixed but overall near to steady trade that has since followed.
Weather reports from Brazil continue to dampen speculative spirits within the coffee markets, as there have been fair to good rains over most of the main arabica coffee districts of the country and while some of the eastern conilon robusta districts have not had superb rains so far, it would seem that there have now been some showers to lessen the threat to the next year’s crop. Thus for the short to medium term at least, it would seem that the markets can expect little in the way of support from the Brazil rainfall reports and with the firmer U.S. dollar in play the coffee markets are once again under some degree of pressure.
The second month arbitrage between the markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 47.64 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 39.26% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, but is perhaps due to widen further in time and when Vietnam stocks start to impact in more volume upon the fortunes of the London market.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 4,600 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,891,221 bags. There was meanwhile a similar in volume 4,422 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 30,453 bags.
The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange were seen to remain unchanged on Friday 6th. November; to register these stocks at 3,342,500 bags on the day.
The London and New York markets started the day yesterday, with some degree of buoyancy, but within an environment of thin and lacklustre trade. Both markets and with volumes picking up, managed to maintain their buoyancy into the afternoon trade and carried on with a positive track, as the afternoon progressed. Later in the afternoon though and while the London market continued to hold on to a good portion of its corrective gains, the New York market fell in line with the negative nature of the overall macro commodity index and suffered a reversal that saw the market head back to struggle to remain above the relatively modest par that was set on Fridays selloff. The London market ended the day on a modestly positive note and with 63.6% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on only a steady note and with only 10.3% of the earlier gains of the day intact.
Over the same week the Non Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within the market by 23.42%, to register a net short position of 23,886 Lots. This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 6,771,575 bags has most likely been marginally increased, following the period of mixed but overall more negative trade which has since followed and likewise, that of the short sold position of the Managed Money Funds.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 23.67% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 3rd. November; to register a net short sold position of 9,015 Lots on the day. This net long that is the equivalent of 1,502,500 bags has most likely been little changed, over the period of mixed but overall near to steady trade that has since followed.
Weather reports from Brazil continue to dampen speculative spirits within the coffee markets, as there have been fair to good rains over most of the main arabica coffee districts of the country and while some of the eastern conilon robusta districts have not had superb rains so far, it would seem that there have now been some showers to lessen the threat to the next year’s crop. Thus for the short to medium term at least, it would seem that the markets can expect little in the way of support from the Brazil rainfall reports and with the firmer U.S. dollar in play the coffee markets are once again under some degree of pressure.
The second month arbitrage between the markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 47.64 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 39.26% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, but is perhaps due to widen further in time and when Vietnam stocks start to impact in more volume upon the fortunes of the London market.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 4,600 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,891,221 bags. There was meanwhile a similar in volume 4,422 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 30,453 bags.
The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange were seen to remain unchanged on Friday 6th. November; to register these stocks at 3,342,500 bags on the day.
The London and New York markets started the day yesterday, with some degree of buoyancy, but within an environment of thin and lacklustre trade. Both markets and with volumes picking up, managed to maintain their buoyancy into the afternoon trade and carried on with a positive track, as the afternoon progressed. Later in the afternoon though and while the London market continued to hold on to a good portion of its corrective gains, the New York market fell in line with the negative nature of the overall macro commodity index and suffered a reversal that saw the market head back to struggle to remain above the relatively modest par that was set on Fridays selloff. The London market ended the day on a modestly positive note and with 63.6% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on only a steady note and with only 10.3% of the earlier gains of the day intact.
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