Coffee futures prices - Estimate for arabica coffee supplies 2016 : Brazilian producers forecast a recovery in domestic arabica output next year, while data put Colombia on course to beat farmers' hopes for 2015 – underlining the rationale behind a waning premium over robusta beans.
Brazil's Conselho Nacional do Café (CNC) producers' group pegged at 47m-49m bags total Brazilian coffee output next year, reflecting a "nice first flowering" on arabica trees, some three months ago.
While the estimate was well below figures from some other commentators, such as Rabobank, which has forecast a 58m-bag harvest, it represents a significant improvement on the official number of 42.2m bags recorded for this year.
Both the CNC and Conab, the official Brazilian crop bureau, are known for conservative crop forecasts.
The improvement expected for 2016 reflected a recovery to some 37m bags, from 31.3m bags, in the estimate for arabica output, with the robusta crop, tested by prolonged dryness in the key state of Espirito Santo, seen coming in at about 11m bags, in line with last year.
Colombia revival
Further upbeat news for arabica supplies came from Colombia, the second-ranked producer of the variety, where output last month came in at 1.32m bags, according to the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros producers' group, better known as Fedecafe.
That represented an 18.6% rise year on year, and was the strongest November figure since 2007, continuing a recovery in output as trees mature which were planted early in the decade in a drive to counter rust fungus.
Cumulative Colombian coffee output for 2015 has now reached 12.7m bags, leaving full-year output almost certain to beat a Fedecafe forecast of 13.6m bags.
December is typically one of the highest producing months.
Fedecafe also reported that Colombian coffee exports in November rose 6.6% year on year to 1.09m bags – the highest figure for the month since 2002.
Highest price in at least 14 years
The data came even as commentators highlighted the diminished gap between arabica and robusta beans – a dynamic also being spurred by withholding by Vietnam's mainly robusta coffee growers of supplies in hope of higher prices.
Research institute Cepea noted that Brazilian robusta prices had for the benchmark type 6, screen 13 grade average R$375.28 per bag last month in the Espirito Santo cash market – up 36% year on year and the highest on data going back to 2001.
"Robusta quotes kept high," Cepea said, noting that sources said that "rains in Espírito Santo state were not enough to [revive] crops.
"If weather keeps dry, production of the 2016-17 crop may be lower than [this year's] one," concerns over which had "limited" sales of robusta beans in late November.
The price increase - while also reflecting a slump in the real, which raises the value in local terms of crops denominated internationally in dollar – was a more modest 1.8% year on year for arabica beans, as measured in Sao Paulo city, taking it to R$480.00 a bag.
'Support to arabica prices'
Separately, the International Coffee Organization said that the discount of London robusta futures last month to New York arabica futures had narrowed to 50.31 cents a pound - a decline of 11.1% month on month and 49% year on year.
The narrowing in the "arbitrage" between the two beans "should provide some support to arabica prices moving forwards", the ICO said.
Futures in both exchanges lost ground on Tuesday, with New York's March arabica contract down 1.6% at 124.00 cents a pound, and London's March robusta lot down 1.3% at $1,541 a tonne.
Brazil's Conselho Nacional do Café (CNC) producers' group pegged at 47m-49m bags total Brazilian coffee output next year, reflecting a "nice first flowering" on arabica trees, some three months ago.
While the estimate was well below figures from some other commentators, such as Rabobank, which has forecast a 58m-bag harvest, it represents a significant improvement on the official number of 42.2m bags recorded for this year.
Both the CNC and Conab, the official Brazilian crop bureau, are known for conservative crop forecasts.
The improvement expected for 2016 reflected a recovery to some 37m bags, from 31.3m bags, in the estimate for arabica output, with the robusta crop, tested by prolonged dryness in the key state of Espirito Santo, seen coming in at about 11m bags, in line with last year.
Colombia revival
Further upbeat news for arabica supplies came from Colombia, the second-ranked producer of the variety, where output last month came in at 1.32m bags, according to the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros producers' group, better known as Fedecafe.
That represented an 18.6% rise year on year, and was the strongest November figure since 2007, continuing a recovery in output as trees mature which were planted early in the decade in a drive to counter rust fungus.
Cumulative Colombian coffee output for 2015 has now reached 12.7m bags, leaving full-year output almost certain to beat a Fedecafe forecast of 13.6m bags.
December is typically one of the highest producing months.
Fedecafe also reported that Colombian coffee exports in November rose 6.6% year on year to 1.09m bags – the highest figure for the month since 2002.
Highest price in at least 14 years
The data came even as commentators highlighted the diminished gap between arabica and robusta beans – a dynamic also being spurred by withholding by Vietnam's mainly robusta coffee growers of supplies in hope of higher prices.
Research institute Cepea noted that Brazilian robusta prices had for the benchmark type 6, screen 13 grade average R$375.28 per bag last month in the Espirito Santo cash market – up 36% year on year and the highest on data going back to 2001.
"Robusta quotes kept high," Cepea said, noting that sources said that "rains in Espírito Santo state were not enough to [revive] crops.
"If weather keeps dry, production of the 2016-17 crop may be lower than [this year's] one," concerns over which had "limited" sales of robusta beans in late November.
The price increase - while also reflecting a slump in the real, which raises the value in local terms of crops denominated internationally in dollar – was a more modest 1.8% year on year for arabica beans, as measured in Sao Paulo city, taking it to R$480.00 a bag.
'Support to arabica prices'
Separately, the International Coffee Organization said that the discount of London robusta futures last month to New York arabica futures had narrowed to 50.31 cents a pound - a decline of 11.1% month on month and 49% year on year.
The narrowing in the "arbitrage" between the two beans "should provide some support to arabica prices moving forwards", the ICO said.
Futures in both exchanges lost ground on Tuesday, with New York's March arabica contract down 1.6% at 124.00 cents a pound, and London's March robusta lot down 1.3% at $1,541 a tonne.
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