Estimates Vietnam coffee exports December 2015 : The General Statistics office in Vietnam have reported that with the estimates of this month coffee exports in hand and expected to be marginally lower than 2.17 million bags, that the countries coffee exports of mostly robusta coffees for 2015 shall be 24.3% lower than for the previous year. In this respect they have pegged the coffee exports for 2015 at just over 21.3 million bags, which is a figure that with the internal market price resistance that has prevailed for the year, has contributed to the record carryover stocks into their new harvest, which had been estimated at between 5 million to 7 million bags of robusta coffees.
The General Statistics office in Vietnam have however reported that with their December export estimate in hand that the countries coffee exports for the first three months of the new October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year in hand, that these exports shall prove to be 6.7% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 5,251,667 bags.
This increase albeit a modest one, does perhaps provide an indicator that there might be some cracks in the resilience of the internal market price resistance coming to the fore and might further indicate with the financial demands that shall come with the forthcoming Tet New Year (Year of the Monkey) holiday over the second week of February, that there might be a further pick up in coffee export volumes due for the month of January. A factor that with the resulting price fixation hedge selling volumes coming to the market, might continue to impact upon the fortunes of the related London robusta coffee market in the coming month.
One might note that the downturn in coffee exports for 2015 from Vietnam that it has contributed in a small way to the countries government now estimating that following a trade surplus of 2.14 billion U.S. dollars in 2014, the country shall experience a sharp reversal and report a 3.17 billion U.S. dollars trade deficit for 2015. Of course in terms of the coffee industry in Vietnam being a minor player in the overall economy there is unlikely to be pressure upon the internal traders to free up their significant stocks and dump coffee into the prevailing soft international coffee markets, but one might perhaps expect that with the economy coming under pressure in general, that it might have some impact upon the availability of finance for the internal traders that have been holding back stocks from the market over the recent months.
This factor of a threat to available finance might make question the longer term ability of Vietnam and especially with a larger new crop adding to the internal market stocks, to maintain the same degree of price resistance during the coming year. If this proves to be the case and with the resulting increased selling activity out of Vietnam, it might impact negatively upon the longer term confidence of the speculative sector within the London robusta coffee market.
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