Coffee futures today - 2016 Rabobank forecasts Arabica coffee and Cocoa Prices : Rabobank cut forecasts for other soft commodities, including cocoa, for which it saw New York futures returning well below $3,000 a tonne by the April-to-June quarter, to average $2,850 a tonne, nearly $400 a tonne below the price that investors are factoring in.
While "lingering dryness" is supporting cocoa prices for now, "we still believe there will be a downward correction, after the elections in Ivory Coast", the top producing country, where fears of political unease have also been cited as a support for values.
The bank forecast a world cocoa production deficit of 113,000 tonnes in 2015-16, after a 50,000-tonne shortfall in the current season, which ends on Wednesday.
And for coffee, the bank lowered its forecast for New York arabica futures by up to 10 cents a pound, citing "excellent rains" in Brazil, a boost to flowering ahead of the 2016 harvest, besides weakness in the real, which represented some setback to sugar price prospects too.
Nonetheless, Rabobank's coffee price forecasts remained above the futures curve, with the bank noting "weather problems" in some major producing countries, in particular a lack of rain Colombia, the second biggest arabica producing country, and Indonesia.
In both countries, El Nino periods have a record of promoting dryness.
While "lingering dryness" is supporting cocoa prices for now, "we still believe there will be a downward correction, after the elections in Ivory Coast", the top producing country, where fears of political unease have also been cited as a support for values.
The bank forecast a world cocoa production deficit of 113,000 tonnes in 2015-16, after a 50,000-tonne shortfall in the current season, which ends on Wednesday.
And for coffee, the bank lowered its forecast for New York arabica futures by up to 10 cents a pound, citing "excellent rains" in Brazil, a boost to flowering ahead of the 2016 harvest, besides weakness in the real, which represented some setback to sugar price prospects too.
Nonetheless, Rabobank's coffee price forecasts remained above the futures curve, with the bank noting "weather problems" in some major producing countries, in particular a lack of rain Colombia, the second biggest arabica producing country, and Indonesia.
In both countries, El Nino periods have a record of promoting dryness.
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