Coffee Prices - Coffee prices on Monday July 11, 2016 - Arabica Robusta Coffee futures rise to 2015 highs trading in New York Stock Exchange rose kelevel highest since 2015 as a result of concerns over the declining quality coffee from Brazil, the price of arabica coffee in New York Stock Exchange for September delivery closed up 5.2 percent, or 3.6 percent, at $ 1.493 per lb, after reaching $ 1.4995 the highest price since February 2015, while Robusta coffee prices on the London market increased due to decreased production of Robusta coffee from Indonesia due to the effects of weather Elnina Some time ago, on a Monday night trade coffee robusta for September delivery closed up $ 32, or 1.8 percent, at $ 1,829 per ton, the highest since April 2015.
With apologies for perhaps been misleading in the Friday report, we understand that the respected Brazilian analysts Safras & Mercado who had forecasted the new Brazil crop at 56.4 million bags, have last week reviewed this forecast 2.66% lower and to a figure of 54.9 million bags. This figure and with their report that as at Tuesday last week noting that they asses that 52% of the new crop had been harvested and the harvest weighted including the nearly completed conilon robusta crop, would indicate that by then approximately 17 million bags of the new arabica crop had already been harvested. While perhaps by now, this might be a figure closer to 20 million bags of new crop arabica.
Contrary to the news that the Indian monsoon rains this year have been up to average levels and conducive to good agricultural production, the Coffee Board of India have reported that the countries coffee production from the forthcoming new crop shall suffer from poor rains and be 8% lower than the previous crop, with a new crop forecast for 5,333,333 bags. This new crop they predict shall be made up from a 31.25 to 68.75 ratio of arabica to robusta coffees, which would indicate that they foresee that the smaller arabica coffee sector of their industry shall gain some market share during the coming October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year.
What is perhaps interesting in terms of Indian coffee farm yields is that the Coffee Board of India reports that the country has 423,000 hectares of land under coffee, which would indicate with a forecasted new crop of 320,000 Metric tons that they are looking at yields of only a relatively modest 756.5 Kgs. per hectare. This being a yield factor and particularly with the countries production dominated by usually higher yielding robusta coffee, which is well below potential and would indicated that with improved farm husbandry that India has the longer term potential to significantly increase its annual coffee production levels.
The National Association of the Coffee Industry in Mexico have reported that the country which has seen its coffee production hit by Roya or Leaf Rust and various other diseases four years ago and production dip by 49% to 2.3 million bags for the last harvest, is now on a road to recovery. In this respect they forecast a new crop of 2.7 million bags for the forthcoming new crop, with the potential to recover towards crops of in excess of 4.5 million bags within the next three years. These figures for the present relatively dismal crop levels are however somewhat questionable, as there are many trade and industry reports that have indicated that the Mexican coffee crop had been in excess of 3 million bags for the last harvest, but likewise agree that the next crop is likely to be approximately 15% larger than the last crop.
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